Giorgia Meloni’s influence is growing across Europe, positioning her among today’s most influential leaders. #GiorgiaMeloni #EuropeanPolitics #EuropeToday #PoliticalLeadership #GlobalPolitics #ItalyNews #EUAffairs #WorldLeaders #PoliticalAnalysis

Political elites come and go. Sometimes leaders look as if they are on the brink of disappearing; in other cases, they stubbornly refuse to leave the scene. In today’s European Union, even leaders who are relative newcomers to government, like German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, do not look particularly strong. Institutions that once appeared almost almighty, such as the French presidency, seem frail. The major exception is the Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni.

With a solid majority at home and a rapidly growing reputation abroad, Prime Minister Meloni seems well positioned to be pivotal in the European order. It was a surprise to many when she won the elections in 2022; the international press decried a member of a post-fascist party becoming Italy’s prime minister. Before her rise, it seemed that no leader could be more appreciated abroad than her predecessor, Prime Minister Mario Draghi.

Yet Mr. Draghi headed an unstable, all-in coalition, in which the left and right − with the notable exception of Ms. Meloni’s party, the Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy), then in the opposition − had to engage in extensive deal-making. In contrast, Prime Minister Meloni is now at the helm of a political coalition that is far more coherent, with a composition like the one first assembled by Silvio Berlusconi some 30 years ago.

Ms. Meloni campaigned for more political stability, and claims the very duration of her government as her major success. Her ability to keep going reflects her political shrewdness.

“Italy” and “political stability” are words that are very rarely uttered together. Since 1948, the average duration of an Italian government has been 16 months. Prime Minister Meloni’s government is already the third longest-serving in the history of republican Italy. If there are no early elections (which could actually be in her interest, as her popularity remains very high), Prime Minister Meloni’s could be the first and only government in post-war Italian history to complete an entire parliamentary term without experiencing a political crisis, a reappointment or a new confidence vote. Even Prime Minister Berlusconi, in 2001-2006, technically headed two different cabinets.

Crafted in the aftermath of fascism, the Italian Constitution limits the powers of the prime minister. Politicians and jurists alike have long been examining this issue, and attempts to reform the constitution, aiming to recenter it around the position, have been on the agenda since the 1980s. They have routinely failed; each time, a veto coalition prevailed, often for petty political reasons

Prime Minister Meloni herself campaigned on a proposal for the popular election of the president of the republic (along the model of the Fifth Republic in France), which morphed into her more recent proposal for the direct election of the prime minister. As Italy is a parliamentary republic, the head of state is elected by parliament and the prime minister depends on the parliament’s confidence.

It is unclear if Prime Minister Meloni will successfully enact such a reform during this electoral term, which lasts until late 2027. A constitutional reform, if not approved by an absolute majority in parliament, needs to be confirmed via a public referendum. There is no quorum for such a referendum, meaning it does not take a certain percentage of the population to vote for the referendum to be valid. However many Italians show up at the ballot box, the result is valid. In this situation, committed opponents tend to prevail (not only in Italy – it is always easier to mobilize people against something than in favor of something else).

While such a change in the constitution would be a profound one, in terms of practical politics it may be a natural step, given the path Italy has followed for the last 30 years. This may explain why Prime Minister Meloni, though she has not yet accomplished this change, seems to embody its very essence: Italy has a strong prime minister, who is certainly in the driver’s seat of the government.

Since 1994, when Silvio Berlusconi entered the political ring, Italy’s politicians have been polarized and clustered around political leaders.

The end of the so-called “first republic” coincided with the demise of a purely proportional system of representation. Under the electoral law at the time, Italians cast preferences for members of parliament, but had no clue about the parliamentary alchemies that later produced a particular cabinet. Governments constantly reshuffled: The Christian Democrats stayed in power uninterrupted for 46 years. The Communist Party, as their major opponent, could not assemble a national government in the NATO country, and so the Christian Democrats subsumed different political sensibilities, including many left-leaning ones. The political focus was less about agreements among various parties than those within each of them.

That changed in 1994. Italians since then have voted for the specific coalitions that aim to govern (with the exception of the confused 2018-2022 term). They all run with a leader, claiming he or she will be the prime minister if they win. While he did not accomplish presidential reform, in parliamentary elections Mr. Berlusconi continued to associate his name with the presidency. In the graphic party icon on the ballot paper adjacent to his name, it featured the words “Berlusconi for President.” The same happened with Ms. Meloni.

Clearly, Italian politics results in polarization and the electorate has a taste for strongly visible political leaders.